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Blaze The Way

8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 139

Listowel · Charlie Chute Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quickly made up into a useful chaser last season, winning a handicap at Cheltenham before running respectably in Ultima back there and shaping better than being pulled up suggests in the Scottish National. Drop back in trip will suit and major claims if fully wound up for this return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Uttoxeter 15/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 129 · 2m7f70y GS 154 · below its mark15/03/2025 · OR 129 par15/032OR 1291 @ Fairyhouse 22/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 127 · 2m7f35y Yie 163 · below its mark22/04/2025 · OR 127 parC0 @ Tipperary 08/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m7f110y Goo 1668/05C?C8 @ Listowel 21/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m1f150y Yie 156C0 @ Sligo 01/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m1f120y Yie 1661/10C?1 @ Punchestown 15/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 127 · 2m2f75y Goo 155 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 127 par1 @ Cheltenham 12/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 134 · 3m2f70y GS 142 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 134 par12/121OR 1341 @ Naas 25/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 140 · 3m125y Hvy 154 · below its mark25/01/2026 · OR 140 par1 @ Cheltenham 10/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 146 · 3m1f GS 157 · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 146 par10/031OR 146projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-18Ayr10
2026-03-10Cheltenham17th7th0
2026-01-25Naas15th5th0
2025-12-12Cheltenham11st1st0
2025-10-15Punchestown14th4th0
2025-10-01Sligo?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0321/0912/1210/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20254th6/168%81%+0.13
22/04/20258th18/15%59%+0.54
08/05/20255th16/116%71%+0.56
21/09/20256th5/174%29%-0.45
01/10/20252nd9/276%86%+0.09
15/10/20254th6/168%40%-0.28
12/12/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
25/01/20265th5/174%43%-0.31
10/03/20267th14/126%71%+0.45