11
Drumgill
7yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 120
Listowel · Charlie Chute Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Listowel | BHA122 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | BHA123 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA125 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA128 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | 1 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |