11
Dorans Law
8yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 105
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#12
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Listowel | BHA105 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA105 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA106 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA108 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA108 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |