5
Ira Hayes
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 112
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | BHA112 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA112 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Market Rasen | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | BHA110 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | BHA110 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 11-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 02/03/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |