10
Justatan
7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 106
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA101 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA99 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Naas | BHA103 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Limerick | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 02/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 85% | -0.09 |
| 28/12/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 25/01/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.15 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |