15
King Ferdinand
10yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 93
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#7
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA92 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA96 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2024-12-27 | Limerick | BHA104 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-12-08 | Cork | BHA104 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2024 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 05/08/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 22/08/2024 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/09/2024 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 13/10/2024 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 03/11/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 08/12/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 27/12/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |