13
Le Grand Vert
10yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 104
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA82 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA105 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA82 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |