1
Sphagnum
9yo Gelding · 12-4 · OR 120
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Wexford | BHA122 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA100 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA98 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | BHA100 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA103 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Sligo | BHA105 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +9.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2024 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 36% | -0.43 |
| 03/11/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 11/08/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 20/08/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 18% | -0.53 |
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 12/04/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |