3
Tullybeg
11yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 114
Listowel · John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 180y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA117 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA120 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA129 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Chepstow | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2024 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 26/05/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/07/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |