5
Clea Chope
3yo Filly · 8-10
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Morel-journel Stakes · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-11 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Deauville | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/03/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 05/09/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |