3
Maximilien
3yo Colt · 8-13
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Morel-journel Stakes · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 2 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/01/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |