4
Michael The Great
3yo Colt · 8-13
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Morel-journel Stakes · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 07/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |