1
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3yo Gelding · 8-13
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Morel-journel Stakes · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |