3
Cambronne
6yo Gelding · 8-11
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De La Pelouse Stakes · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Marseille-borely | 1 | +2 | ||
| 2026-04-19 | Toulouse | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | La Teste De Buch | 1 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Marseille-borely | ? | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/07/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |