2
Shiawase
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De La Pelouse Stakes · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -22.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |