5
Spanish Breeze Cen
4yo Colt · 8-11
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De La Pelouse Stakes · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Clairefontaine | ? | 4th | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-07 | Dieppe | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |
| 16/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 18/04/2025 | 9th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 07/07/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 68% | +0.16 |