5
Bonny Way
5yo Filly · 10-10
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Des Amateurs Handicap · 1m 7f 144y
#6
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 18/02/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |