3
Stella Marina
6yo Mare · 11-0
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Des Amateurs Handicap · 1m 7f 144y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Vittel | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strasbourg | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Nancy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 03/10/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 23/04/2026 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 22/06/2026 | 9th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |