2
Trevor Senora
6yo Gelding · 11-0
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Des Amateurs Handicap · 1m 7f 144y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
97%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 85% | -0.06 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 12/12/2025 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 93% | +0.33 |