5
Coupe D'europe
5yo Filly · 8-8
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De L'esplanade Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Toulouse | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Marseille | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-12-16 | Marseille | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength16%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 21% | -0.05 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 30/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 24/01/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/09/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |