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3

Kovrov

6yo Gelding · 9-2

Lyon-Parilly · Prix De L'esplanade Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

#2

Rank

Odds

1/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chateaubriant 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m1f152y Sft 12921/08C5C5 @ Marseille-borely 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 128C1 @ Marseille-borely 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS18/10C1C5 @ Marseille 16/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 134C1 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 24/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS24/01C12 @ Marseille-borely 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ ParisLongchamp 10/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/0511 @ Chantilly 31/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Marseille 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS20/061projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-20Marseille11st-3th+3
2026-05-31Chantilly114th10th+3
2026-05-10ParisLongchamp19th5th+3
2026-04-10Marseille-borely23rd1st+2
2026-01-24Cagnes-sur-Mer?4th0th+3
2025-12-16Marseille?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0816/1210/0520/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20252nd11/1094%80%-0.14
27/09/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
18/10/20255th11/486%33%-0.52
16/12/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
24/01/20264th9/488%57%-0.31
10/04/20263rd5/493%71%-0.22
10/05/20269th22/10%58%+0.58
31/05/202614th12/137%19%-0.18
20/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13