2
Top Town Tell Tale
4yo Colt · 9-2
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De L'esplanade Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength44%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 53% | -0.20 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |