4
Aurora Beau Real
3yo Filly · 8-12
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Black Dancer Maiden Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
1/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.08 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |