Goya Senora
10yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 111
Lyon-Parilly · Gp Des Provinces Listed Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meydan | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |