1
Presage Nocturne
6yo Horse · 9-5
Lyon-Parilly · Gp Des Provinces Listed Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Flemington | ? | 19th | 19th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/05/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 04/11/2025 | 19th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.61 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |