Understudy
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 100
Lyon-Parilly · Gp Des Provinces Listed Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 17/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 14% | -0.76 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |