8
Yes Zara
6yo Mare · 8-11
Lyon-Parilly · Gp Des Provinces Listed Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 2 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Senonnes-Pouance | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 23/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/08/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |