6
Belcha
10yo Gelding · 9-1
Lyon-Parilly · Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 7f 209y
#11
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Fontainebleau | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-03-21 | Le Mans | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2024-08-30 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2024 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 20/06/2024 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 03/07/2024 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 30/08/2024 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 21/03/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/04/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/04/2025 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.08 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |