4
Fernando
6yo Gelding · 9-4
Lyon-Parilly · Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Moulins | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |