3
Irelia
4yo Filly · 9-5
Lyon-Parilly · Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 7f 209y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Marseille | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength14%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 27/02/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 04/04/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 18/04/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 30/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |