9
Lisa
5yo Filly · 8-4
Lyon-Parilly · Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 7f 209y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Moulins | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Marseille | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 16/02/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 31% | +0.15 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.21 |
| 17/04/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |