7
Lorlisalsa
11yo Mare · 8-13
Lyon-Parilly · Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |