5
Maple Girl
7yo Mare · 9-3
Lyon-Parilly · Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength94%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 31% | -0.35 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |