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8yo Gelding · 8-13

Lyon-Parilly · Le Charly's - Prix Du Paddock Handicap · 7f 209y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Compiegne 20/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0533 @ Compiegne 09/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 60 · 7f209y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 60 par3 @ ParisLongchamp 18/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS18/0633 @ Chantilly 24/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Saint-Cloud 05/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0734 @ Le Lion D'angers 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 1213 @ Deauville 08/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 114 · HIGHER CLASS8/0833 @ Deauville 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Le Mans 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 12711/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Le Mans45th5th0
2026-09-01Deauville31st0th+1
2026-08-08Deauville312th11th+1
2026-07-24Le Lion D'angers45th5th0
2026-07-05Saint-Cloud310th9th+1
2026-06-24Chantilly33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0524/068/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength62%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/202610th8/158%36%-0.22
09/06/20268th14/126%53%+0.27
18/06/20266th13/266%58%-0.07
24/06/20263rd10/382%78%-0.05
05/07/202610th5/174%31%-0.43
24/07/20265th3/184%67%-0.18
08/08/202612th22/10%27%+0.27
01/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
11/09/20265th13/266%71%+0.06