3
Moabi
4yo Filly · 9-5
Lyon-Parilly · Le Charly's - Prix Du Paddock Handicap · 7f 209y
#11
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 30/03/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 77% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |