4
Three Dreams
6yo Mare · 9-3
Lyon-Parilly · Le Charly's - Prix Du Paddock Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |