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9

Adba

3yo Filly · 10-3

Market Rasen · Market Rasen Racecourse Conference & Events Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dam half-sister to fairly useful hurdler (17f winner) Arslan. Modest form on Flat (stays 8.5f) for Ralph Beckett. Looks a handicap project on the evidence of her 2 starts to date.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 1285/1155 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12815/1253 @ Southwell 14/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m13y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS14/0336 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 60 par10/046OR 605 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m75y Goo 123 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 58 par26/045OR 584 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 14726/0744 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 2m Gd 14219/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Worcester45th5th0
2026-07-26Uttoxeter46th6th0
2026-04-26Nottingham55th6th−1
2026-04-10Wolverhampton67th9th−2
2026-03-14Southwell37th6th+1
2025-12-15Lingfield58th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1110/0419/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +10.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20257th14/126%50%+0.24
15/12/20258th11/271%30%-0.41
14/03/20267th66/10%33%+0.33
10/04/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
26/04/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
26/07/20266th25/10%38%+0.38
19/08/20265th150/10%69%+0.69