1
Elated
5yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 98
Market Rasen · Market Rasen Racecourse Conference & Events Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fontwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Warwick | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Chepstow | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength94%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |