4
Lynxman
3yo Gelding · 11-2
Market Rasen · Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan Site Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y
#7
Rank
Odds
250/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 6 | 8th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 11th | −3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-08-08 | Haydock | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Southwell | 5 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength16%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2025 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 300/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |