1
Moment Of Light
3yo Gelding · 11-8
Market Rasen · Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan Site Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/6
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Newmarket | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |