2

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7yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 131

Market Rasen · Summer Plate Ladies Day 2027 On Sale Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 89y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful sort. Looked ready for another crack at fences when sixth in a very competitive Aintree handicap hurdle, however he capitulated in worrying fashion (previously had a couple of breathing operations) in a handicap chase at Punchestown in May. Fairly treated if back on song, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 09/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 2m3f171y GS 1589/1244 @ Ayr 20/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 117 · 2m Sft 156 · beat its mark20/01/2025 · OR 117 par1 @ Kelso 01/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 120 · 2m2f25y GS 159 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/03/2025 · OR 120 par1/031OR 1201 @ Aintree 04/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 137 · 2m103y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2025 · OR 137 par3 @ Perth 21/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 2m4f20y Sft 15921/1032 @ Ascot 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 137 · 2m5f13y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 137 par2 @ Musselburgh 01/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 137 · 2m4f68y GS 165 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 137 par1/012OR 1372 @ Kelso 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 135 · 2m51y GS 166 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 135 par1 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 133 · 2m4f Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 133 par10/041OR 133projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-01Punchestown1+2
2026-04-10Aintree16th4th+2
2026-02-28Kelso28th7th+1
2026-01-01Musselburgh26th5th+1
2025-11-21Ascot22nd1st+1
2025-10-21Perth32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/124/041/0110/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/12/20242nd4/596%67%-0.29
20/01/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
01/03/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
04/04/20254th14/126%63%+0.36
21/10/20252nd2/189%50%-0.39
21/11/20252nd4/179%50%-0.29
01/01/20266th9/488%38%-0.51
28/02/20268th14/126%56%+0.30
10/04/20266th28/10%76%+0.76