Nickelforce
7yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 118
Market Rasen · Summer Plate Ladies Day 2027 On Sale Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 89y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fakenham | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wincanton | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/5 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |