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6

Deadly Missile

9yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 76

Market Rasen · Dine In Altior's Restaurant Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 191y

#4

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to the pick of his form when off the mark over fences at the thirteenth attempt in 3¼m handicap at Uttoxeter in July last year. Posted a solid third under a penalty back there despite going about things in a typically laboured fashion, but a 14-month absence is an obvious concern.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 30/09/2023 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 2m7f191y Gd 142 · beat its mark30/09/2023 · OR 72 par30/095OR 725 @ Hereford 17/10/2023 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 3m1f44y GF 145 · beat its mark17/10/2023 · OR 76 par5 @ Ludlow 27/11/2023 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 76 · 2m7f171y Goo 144 · beat its mark27/11/2023 · OR 76 par27/115OR 765 @ Hereford 15/01/2024 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 75 · 3m1f44y Goo 143 · beat its mark15/01/2024 · OR 75 par5 @ Leicester 31/01/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 2m6f151y Sft 142 · beat its mark31/01/2024 · OR 72 par31/015OR 725 @ Warwick 04/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 3m Gd 142 · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Worcester 25/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 71 · 2m7f Goo 142 · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 71 par25/065OR 715 @ Uttoxeter 16/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 71 · 3m2f13y Gd 142 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Uttoxeter 25/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 3m2f13y Gd 146 · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 71 par25/075OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-07-25Uttoxeter53rd3rd0
2025-07-16Uttoxeter51st1st0
2025-06-25Worcester54th4th0
2025-06-04Warwick54th4th0
2025-05-12Southwell50
2024-01-31Leicester53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0915/0125/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength47%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20232nd10/147%88%+0.40
17/10/20232nd7/282%83%+0.02
27/11/20235th12/137%64%+0.27
15/01/20245th5/174%60%-0.14
31/01/20243rd9/153%71%+0.19
04/06/20254th40/10%50%+0.50
25/06/20254th14/126%77%+0.51
16/07/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
25/07/20253rd5/174%78%+0.04