3
Buxted Reel
7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94
Market Rasen · 10 Pound County Racedays Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 140y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Warwick | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |