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Timely Salute

3yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 100

Market Rasen · 10 Pound County Racedays Handicap Hurdle · 2m 2f 140y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden on Flat for William Knight. Hood on for first time when successful in good style on yard/hurdles debut in 2m juvenile at Newton Abbot in July. Backed it up with a very good second of 7 in similar event there (17f, good) 19 days ago. Big shout on his handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f Std 13118/0952 @ Chelmsford City 06/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m3y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS11/0446 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 57 · 1m1y Std 127 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Bath 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m2f37y Fm 135 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 55 par13/056OR 556 @ Lingfield 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m3f133y Goo 132 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 52 par4 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS19/0744 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m167y Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS7/094projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot42nd1st+1
2026-07-19Newton Abbot41st0th+1
2026-05-30Lingfield64th5th−1
2026-05-13Bath69th10th−1
2026-04-28Lingfield65th6th−1
2026-04-11Yarmouth48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0928/0419/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20255th33/10%60%+0.60
06/11/202511th80/10%23%+0.23
11/04/20268th40/10%30%+0.30
28/04/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
13/05/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
30/05/20264th8/158%67%+0.09
19/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
07/09/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02