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12

Belvedere Blast

8yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 104

Market Rasen · Block Free Services Lincoln Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y

#12

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort landed a fourth victory at this track in a Class 4 handicap (23f) last summer. Hasn't gone on from a positive start to this season, taking little interest in a first-time tongue strap at Cartmel (2¾m) last time. Out of the weights and drop back to 2m unlikely to help his cause, either.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 115 · 2m4f88y Gd 168 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 115 par2/104OR 1154 @ Newcastle 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 114 · 2m7f149y Goo 167 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 114 par4 @ Huntingdon 11/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 113 · 1m7f171y Gd 164 · below its mark11/11/2025 · OR 113 par11/114OR 1134 @ Uttoxeter 09/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 112 · 1m7f168y Sft 165 · below its mark09/12/2025 · OR 112 par4 @ Catterick 28/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 112 · 2m3f66y Gd 170 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 112 par28/124OR 1124 @ Uttoxeter 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 110 · 2m7f70y Gd 158 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Uttoxeter 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 108 · 2m7f70y Gd 166 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 108 par13/064OR 1084 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 110 · 2m4f139y Gd 168 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 109 · 2m7f16y Gd 157 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 109 par15/084OR 109projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Cartmel4−2
2026-08-15Market Rasen45th7th−2
2026-07-18Market Rasen49th11th−2
2026-06-13Uttoxeter43rd5th−2
2026-06-04Uttoxeter43rd5th−2
2025-12-28Catterick413th15th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/109/1213/0615/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20256th11/142%17%-0.25
30/10/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
11/11/20256th40/10%29%+0.29
09/12/20257th14/126%14%-0.12
28/12/202513th28/10%8%+0.08
04/06/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
13/06/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15
18/07/20269th9/153%27%-0.25
15/08/20265th10/382%20%-0.62