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10

Crooked Path

4yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 115

Market Rasen · Block Free Services Lincoln Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Chased home a couple of fairly useful sorts in maidens before opening his hurdle account at Tramore on final start for Denis Hogan. Improved model on the Flat this summer, and no surprise if he advances his hurdles form on first start in this sphere for the excellent James Owen yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲5
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m Hvy 15426/12C8BHA115 @ Punchestown 26/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 115 · 2m Hvy 163 · below its mark26/01/2026 · OR 115 parC8 @ Navan 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 113 · 2m Hvy 161 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 113 par28/02C8OR 113BHA113 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 113 · 2m200y Hvy 154 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 113 parC8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 112 · 2m Sft 161 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 112 par31/03C8OR 112C8 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 112 · 2m80y Goo 150 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 112 par5 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 65 · 1m3f219y Sta 137 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 65 par12/085OR 654 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 72 · 1m4f6y GS 150 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m4f6y Goo 125 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 72 par10/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs42nd4th−2
2026-08-31Epsom Downs42nd4th−2
2026-08-12Kempton51st5th−3
2026-04-20Tramore?1st8th−6
2026-03-31Limerick?3rd10th−6
2026-03-12LimerickBHA1133rd14th−9

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1212/0312/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength80%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20252nd17/255%90%+0.35
26/01/20266th10/382%17%-0.66
28/02/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
12/03/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
31/03/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
20/04/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
12/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
31/08/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16
10/09/20262nd15/890%80%-0.10