7
Howth
7yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 122
Market Rasen · Block Free Services Lincoln Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 4 | −2 | ||
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Plumpton | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-07-14 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 09/05/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 29/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |