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Karoline Banbou

6yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 128

Market Rasen · Block Free Services Lincoln Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y

#10

Rank

Odds

125/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort over hurdles when fourth in 2025 Dawn Run at Cheltenham Festival. Fall at Leopardstown in March seemingly derailed her progress over fences for Willie Mullins this year. On a reasonable mark for her handicap hurdle debut, provided she's back on song for capable new handler.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -7.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 16/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR - · 2m51y Goo 16116/12C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 05/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m Hvy 1611 @ Cheltenham 13/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR 132 · 2m179y GS 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/03/2025 · OR 132 par13/031OR 1321 @ Fairyhouse 20/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 132 · 2m4f Sft 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/04/2025 · OR 132 par1 @ Punchestown 01/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 132 · 2m94y Yie 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/05/2025 · OR 132 par1/051OR 132C0 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 2m55y Sft 159C0 @ Fairyhouse 14/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m1f30y Yie 15914/01C?BHA130 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 130 · 2m Goo 159 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 130 parBHA128 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 128 · 2m4f55y Goo 163 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 128 par7/06128OR 128projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-07PunchestownBHA1288th21th−11
2026-05-07WexfordBHA1306th19th−11
2026-03-03LeopardstownBHA130−11
2026-01-14Fairyhouse?2nd2nd0
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?2nd2nd0
2025-05-01Punchestown17th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1220/0414/017/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 11-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20242nd1/297%95%-0.03
05/02/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
13/03/20254th10/147%86%+0.39
20/04/20256th4/179%62%-0.17
01/05/20257th6/168%33%-0.35
13/12/20252nd5/287%92%+0.05
14/01/20262nd4/596%86%-0.10
07/05/20266th6/492%44%-0.48
07/06/20268th14/126%36%+0.10