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6

Morning Mayhem

5yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 123

Market Rasen · Block Free Services Lincoln Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 125y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A credit to connections. Rallied to finish 7¾ lengths fourth in a typically competitive Summer Hurdle here in July. Return of headgear probably a catalyst for further improvement when landing Cartmel Cup last time. Now 35 lb higher than his breakthrough success and may find this a bridge too far.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ffos Las 20/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 99 · 1m7f182y Hvy 175 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 99 par20/025OR 993 @ Fakenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 106 · 2m3y Goo 153 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 106 par4 @ Stratford 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 109 · 2m2f148y Goo 167 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 109 par28/034OR 1092 @ Fakenham 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 111 · 2m4f1y Gd 154 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 111 par3 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 112 · 2m167y Gd 154 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 112 par3/063OR 1124 @ Newton Abbot 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 112 · 2m2f110y Goo 168 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 112 par2 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 120 · 2m125y Gd 155 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 120 par18/072OR 1202 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 119 · 2m5f122y Goo 152 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 119 par3 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 118 · 2m1f46y Goo 161 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 118 par29/083OR 118projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Cartmel31st2nd−1
2026-08-22Newton Abbot24th4th0
2026-07-18Market Rasen24th4th0
2026-06-12Newton Abbot44th6th−2
2026-06-03Newton Abbot31st2nd−1
2026-05-04Fakenham24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/024/0518/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength23%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20263rd4/797%60%-0.37
13/03/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
28/03/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13
04/05/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
03/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/06/20264th11/893%0%-0.93
18/07/20264th33/10%75%+0.75
22/08/20264th7/491%25%-0.66
29/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42